Leading, Selling, Skilling, and Thinking Up in a Down Economy

Winning Through Uncertainty: Leading, Selling, Skilling, and Thinking Up in a Down Economy

1. Lead Up: Adaptive Leadership in Challenging Times 

Dan Rust opened the Lead Up session by identifying four common leadership responses to downturns: 

• Optimistic Cheerleaders – rallying teams with energy and positivity. 
• Paranoid Taskmasters – tightening control and micromanaging operations. 
• Cynical Executors – driving flawless execution of set plans, regardless of changing conditions. 
• Insightful Visionaries – stepping back to assess and adapt strategy. 

There is no one right style; good leaders often mix and match styles based on the situation. However, Rust emphasized the importance of recognizing early signs, such as “distant thunder,” before a storm. Taking action early gives you additional choices, tools, and time to react.

He introduced the concept of the Sigmoid Curve: most organizations wait to change until performance declines, but the best leaders innovate while results are still strong. This requires overcoming the curse of success, the complacency that comes when current strategies are “working fine.” 

Takeaway: Anticipate shifts, evolve before necessity forces you to, and engage teams with a mindset of proactive adaptation rather than reactive firefighting. 

2. Sell Up: Rethinking Sales in a Down Economy 

Selling in challenging times requires more than discounting or pushing harder. In Sell Up, Rust explored how economic pressure rewires customer behavior, and why sales teams must realign accordingly. 

Two memorable experiments illustrated his points: 

• The Cola Test: In blind taste tests, Pepsi often won. But when branding was revealed, Coca-Cola prevailed, proving that perception and brand influence decision-making as much as facts. 
• The Chocolate Choice:Participants who chose their chocolate rated it higher of choice. 

When budgets tighten, buyers become cautious. They delay purchases, downsize to “micro-luxuries,” or stay loyal to preferred brands at lower tiers. Rust warned against “autopilot selling”, repeating old scripts when the market has changed. Instead, he urged sales leaders to: 

• Analyze evolving buying patterns. 
• Align solutions with the customer’s current mindset. 
• Adjust offerings, terms, or delivery models to fit new priorities. 

Takeaway: In downturns, selling is less about pushing and more about guiding buyers toward their own confident choices, ones that align with their altered decision-making patterns. 

3. Skill Up: Proactive Growth Before the Storm Hits 

In Skill Up, Rust shifted the focus inward, to the individual leader and professional. Using the metaphor of a Swiss Army knife, he contrasted narrowly skilled “butter knives” with multi-tooled professionals who have deliberately built diverse capabilities over time. 

The central message was clear: start developing new skills before necessity forces you to do so. Just as with organizations, individuals must watch for “distant thunder” and begin sharpening their capabilities early.

He revisited the Sigmoid Curve, this time applying it to personal growth. The optimal moment to reskill is when your current abilities are still delivering results—precisely when motivation is lowest—waiting until performance drops limits resources, time, and energy for learning.

Rust also addressed the obstacles to adult learning: 

• Cognitive overload from constant information flow. 
• Lack of dedicated reflection time. 
• Remote/hybrid work reduces opportunities for observational learning. 
• The challenge of breaking free from “frozen mental models” that resist change. 

Takeaway: Build learning into your routine, reflect regularly, and deliberately push beyond comfort zones—especially when success tempts you to coast. 

4. Think Up: Cultivating Strategic Mindsets Under Pressure 

The final session, Think Up, examined mindset, the foundation for all other actions. Rust candidly noted that optimism doesn’t come naturally to him; his approach blends realism with what he calls integrated thinking, a fusion of: 

• Strategic thinking – considering differentiation and long-term positioning. 
• Critical thinking – questioning assumptions, especially when “everyone” expects a certain outcome. 
• Systems thinking – seeing how interdependencies create ripple effects. 

He told people not to act like lemmings, which means to follow the pack without thinking about whether their path is right for them. If all of your competitors are lowering their prices, think about whether standing out from the crowd could be a better way to go.

Rust also altered the way people perceived scarcity by suggesting that resources are always available, even during challenging times. The hard part is finding creative ways to get funding, skills, and ideas that are still available.

Takeaway: In markets that aren’t sure what to do, those who think differently and act on insights that most people miss find chances that most people miss.

Unified Themes Across the Series

While each session had its focus, several themes emerged consistently: 

1. Start Sooner Than You Think Necessary 

Whether adapting strategy, shifting sales approaches, or learning new skills, early action multiplies options. Waiting for certainty usually means acting with fewer resources. 

2. Continuously Challenge Assumptions 

Success breeds patterns that can blind leaders to the need for change, questioning not only market conditions, but also your mental models and default behaviors. 

3. Align with Human Psychology 

Decisions are shaped as much by perception, choice, and emotion as by logic; leaders and sales teams who respect this dynamic gain an advantage. 

4. Embrace Differentiation and Creativity

When markets contract, doing what everyone else is doing leads to undifferentiated competition. Strategic innovation, whether in offerings, communication, or mindset, creates resilience. 

Conclusion: Rising Above the Downturn

There will always be economic problems, but how leaders respond will determine whether their companies merely get by or become stronger. Dan Rust’s “Rise Above the Downturn” webinar series provides a plan: lead adaptively, sell insightfully, act proactively, and think strategically. By watching early signals, resisting autopilot habits, expanding personal and organizational capabilities, and thinking beyond the crowd, leaders can not only weather downturns but position themselves to thrive when conditions improve.

 
Are you ready to strengthen your leadership in today’s challenges? Infopro Learning offers a comprehensive range of leadership development programs that equip you and your teams with the knowledge, skills, and confidence necessary to lead effectively in uncertain times. Check out Infopro Learning’s Leadership Courses.